What secret polling is underway?

There has been a sharp rise in National's forecast party vote this morning, and a sharp fall in Labour's, both on quite high volumes. 

This could be a belated "wisdom of the crowd" response to Labour's shocking week last week, the All Blacks win or perhaps just a perception that John Key is the better leader at a time of crisis.

More likely, in my view, it could be the result of insider trading if someone carried out polling overnight, whether private party polling or just soon-to-be-published public media polling.

Meanwhile, the probability that John Key will remain prime minister after the election has now remained above 90c all month and regularly trades at 91c, occasionally passing 92c. 

The apparent certainty that Labour is doomed has led to speculation about who will replace Phil Goff after the election - IrishBill at the Standard being an example.

This has been picked up by Danyl McLauchlan at the Dim-Post who outlines two post-election scenarios - the first being Labour genuinely rejuvanating and the second being Labour recycling Clark-era has-beens for the next decade.

It is not good for Danyl's or my reputation to be seen agreeing on anything but this is a topic I addressed in my NBR column on Friday.  This was one of those rare columns that saw me do more than interview the laptop and instead open up a spreadsheet and do some analysis.  I argued that Labour needs urgently to review its current candidate selections and list rankings to avoid throwing away not just 2011 but also 2014.

The way things are going for Labour, I think it is possible its Labour's party vote will go as low as 24% (and I am short on Labour's party vote on iPredict).  If that happens, Labour's caucus will be as follows (based on iPredict forecasts of electorate contests, and with names preceded by list rankings):

1 Phil Goff, Mt Roskill
2 Annette King, Rongotai
3 David Cunliffe, New Lynn
5 Ruth Dyson, Port Hills
6 Parekura Horomia, Ikaroa-Rawhiti
8 Clayton Cosgrove, Waimakariri
9 Trevor  Mallard, Hutt South
12 Nanaia Mahuta, Hauraki-Waikato
14 Grant Robertson, Wellington Central
17 Su'a William, Sio Mangere
28 Clare Curran, Dunedin South
29 Brendon Burns, Chch Central
30 Chris Hipkins, Rimutaka
31 David Shearer, Mt Albert
33 Phil Twyford, Te Atatu
37 Ian Lees-Galloway, Palm North
41 Kris Faafoi, Mana
45 Rino Tirikatene, Te Tai Tonga
47 Megan Woods, Wigram
49 David Clark, Dunedin North
na Louisa Wall, Manurewa
na Lianne Dalziel, Chch East
na Ross Robertson, Manukau East
na Damien O'Connor, West Coast-Tasman
4 David Parker, List Only
7 Maryan Street, List Only
10 Sue Moroney, List Only
11 Charles Chauvel, List Only
13 Jacinda  Ardern, List Only
15 Andrew Little, List Only

If Labour goes a few votes lower, Andrew Little and perhaps Jacinda Ardern would also be out.  Either way, that is a caucus that would be far more likely to deliver Danyl's second scenario:

Labour spends the next ten to twelve years shuffling different combinations of Clark-era former Ministers around in various leadership teams (‘Mallard-King didn’t work? Let’s try Mallard-Street! No? Then how about Dyson-Cosgrove!’) while National sleep-walks through one election after another

Obviously, being partisan, one of the reasons I give advice through the media to Labour is to prevent them from taking it up. That means I try my best to give them good advice.  And the fact I am giving it really shouldn't be a reason they ignore it.  Because they really do look like they are heading towards a debacle.