Looking for movement in Otaki

Here's a dog that hasn't barked.

In Otaki there has been a lot of noise about Steven Joyce's plan to build an enormous motorway right through the middle of the marginal seat.

Before the transport agency decided on its particular route, it put out options that seemed to threaten most homes in the region. Colmar Brunton did a survey (pdf) and a route was selected that was the most popular in that survey.

49 per cent supported it.

Opponents of the motorway have argued the poll was flawed because it didn't offer a 'no expressway'  option.

Since about 15 per cent of respondents selected 'no need for expressway' or some variation such as 'upgrade existing SH1', I'm not sure how people arrive at this claim, but it is what they say.

Yesterday, Labour came out with a policy - the one supported by 7 per cent in the poll.

If opposition to the expressway was as strong as opponents say, then you would expect Labour would have picked up support in Otaki.

Interestingly iPredict stocks in Otaki haven't moved at all.

That may be because the Colmar Brunton was right, and there is support for a road down the route the government has chosen - Nathan Guy is already a strong favorite in the market, so nothing changed by Labour choosing an unpopular policy.

It may because the market has already priced in the Labour policy.