Parliament Sits And Elections Continue

Parliament resumes on Tuesday and its first act will be to elect a Speaker.

National has already indicated that Lockwood Smith will be elected for a second time and the iPredict market reflects that with a near 100 percent probability.

Before that it is likely that David Shearer will name his new line up and the iPredict market is near certain David Parker will be announced as the next Labour spokesperson for Finance.

Shearer also has to decide what to do with his defeated leadership rival David Cunliffe. Many of Cunliffe’s supporters believe he should be given back his old finance role and there have been reports that Cunliffe is still considering his future if he is sidelined from the front bench.

At the moment though the iPredict market believes there is less than a 20 percent chance David Cunliffe will announce his resignation from Parliament before 1 April 2012.

Also on Tuesday National will elect its whips with the iPredict market near 100 percent certain Michael Woodhouse will be Chief Whip.

Parliament will formally open on Wednesday with the Government outlining its programme in the Speech from the Throne

Other business will include select committees meeting for the first time and elected chairs. Theoretically the outcome of these elections should be unknown, but the iPredict market seems certain it knows the results, with the following stocks close to 100 percent probability:

Todd McClay to be named Chair of Commerce Select Committee

Nikki Kaye to be named Chair of Education and Science Select Committee

Simon Bridges to be named Chair of Finance and Expenditure Select Committee

David Parker to be named Chair of Privileges Committee

McClay’s election will be a change in recent history for the commerce committee.

In the last Parliament Labour MP Lianne Dalziel chaired the committee and in the last Labour Government National MP Simon Power had the role.

Kaye and Bridges' appointments will be some comfort to them after failing to pick up ministerial roles and give them hope that they may be next cabs off the rank.

The chair of the privileges committee is normally given to a senior opposition MP with legal experience and Parker would fit that profile.

ends