Polls Bring a Sense Of 2002 Déjà vu

Polls Bring a Sense Of 2002 Déjà vu

Wellington – There has been heavy trading across party vote share stocks on iPredict after polls over the weekend indicated Labour may be suffering ``2002 syndrome’’.

The One News Colmar poll put National unchanged on 56 percent, Labour dropping one point to 29 percent and the Greens picking up three points to reach 9 percent. TV3 recorded National up 3.5 points to 57.4 percent, Labour down 2 points to 26 and the Greens were up slightly to 9.8 percent.

Averages of polls throughout the year have National retaining support, Labour losing it and the Greens gently rising.

There are many similarities (and some important differences) between National in 2002 and Labour in 2011.

In 2002, National had a capable politician and genuinely nice guy leading it.

Bill English was thrust into the job to take on a  first term Labour Government with a leader peaking in popularity.

English like Phil Goff simply could not make a connection with the general public despite the unpopularity of some of the policies of the incumbent party.

National under English had a party that was still wracked by internal divisions and still coming to terms with being out of office after nine years in power.

Goff has had to deal with MPs like Chris Carter seeking to undermine him and others who seem to be going through the motions.

In 2002, National MPs stuck by English because there was no other obvious leader or one who could do any better.

As the tide continued to flow out key political and social opinion leaders turned their back on National in 2002.

In 2011, Labour has had Chris Trotter wash his hands off this Labour parliamentary team and the Mad Butcher endorse John Key as a ``good guy’’.

National’s support was eaten into by those on its right (ACT), this year the Greens are scooping up potential Labour supporters who do not see Labour as a viable political option.

There are also signs that the Mana party may be having a larger effect on Labour than the Maori Party amongst Maori voters.

The Marae Digipoll indicated voters on the Maori roll were leaking from Labour to Mana and strangely National.

Party Vote – Maori roll Maori voters (2008 result in brackets)

» Labour 35.7% (50.1%)

» Maori 27.7% (28.9%)

» National 13.2% (7.4%)

» Mana 12.0%

Mana will only be a niche party come November but those votes could cost a list MP or two a place in Parliament.

One major difference between the two election campaigns was in 2002 National leaning voters and probably some Labour ones as well gave their support to potential coalition partners for Helen Clark that would moderate her Government.

So far parties such as United Future and New Zealand First have failed to benefit from such a swing in mood.

In 2002, all these factors combined along with supporters not bothering to vote on the day to take National to its worst ever election result.

On current polling Labour will have to campaign furiously and ensure its famed ability to get supporters out on election day rolls into action.

There is some hope for Labour – Some of National’s policies are unpopular and there is a belief that its core support is far more solid than National’s was in 2002.

The other key event for National in 2002 was that it brought John Key into Parliament, on current polling Labour will only be bringing in Andrew Little.

Most Traded Stocks On Monday Morning 

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