Roy Morgan Poll August 20

Wednesday, 20 August 2014 National (48%) holds its lead over Labour/ Greens (39%) as ‘Dirty Politics’ revelations provide a new challenge for PM John Key’s leadership. NZ First surge to 6.5% - highest support since September 2013. Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows gain in support for National (48%, up 2%) now with a significant lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (39%, down 3%) exactly a month before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has fallen slightly overall with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged). Support for the Labour Party is 27.5% (down 2.5%), the Greens are down 0.5% to 11.5%. Potential ‘king-makers’ NZ First looks set to return to Parliament with 6.5% (up 1.5%) – the highest support for NZ First since September 2013, the Internet-Mana Party alliance is 2.5% (unchanged). Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be the Key Government being returned to Parliament. The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 139pts (up 4pts) with 63.5% (up 3.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 24.5% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating (139) is substantially higher than ‘across the ditch’ in Australia – Australian Government Confidence last week fell to 92.5pts (down 7pts).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says: “The latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National (48%) with an election-winning lead over a Labour/ Greens alliance (39%) only a month before the NZ Election. Last week’s release of Nicky Hager’s new book ‘Dirty Politics’ has caused a stir in the media although the full impact of some of Hager’s explosive disclosures has yet to be seen. “In light of Hager’s new book though it is worth remembering that ‘dirty tricks’ in politics is nothing new – Politics is ‘dirty’ and everyone knows that. What has changed in recent years is that clearly the advance of technology and the increasing role of the Internet in everyone’s lives provide a new dimension to these sorts of revelations. The Internet has opened up new levels of transparency and added an unprecedented level of scrutiny to the actions of all of us, and politicians in particular. “Along with these technological advancements also comes increased spying from Government agencies like the Government Communications Securities Bureau (GCSB), and even more nefarious activities like hacking and collusion between Ministerial staff and bloggers to discredit opponents – as revealed in Hager’s new book.

“In terms of the New Zealand Election though, the most important thing to assess is how Prime Minister John Key handles the revelations and the fall-out. If Key demonstrates strong leadership and competence, electors will reward Key for these qualities rather than blame him for the shortcomings of those around him – the Roy Morgan Scoop NZ Election Reactor is the best tool available to monitor how New Zealand electors judge their leaders. “The other point to keep in mind is that timing is crucial during elections. The release of Hager’s book a month before the election gives all the leaders time to respond, and electors will judge their response, whereas information that is revealed in the final days of an election campaign can have an immediate impact that doesn’t give time for leaders to react.

“Looking directly at today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows the main parties are essentially unchanged on the results of the 2011 NZ Election. An exception to this is the new Internet Party (1.5% support) which is set to win representation in Parliament if Mana Party Leader Hone Harawira holds his seat of Te Tai Toekerau. However, a significant difference compared to three years ago is the high Government Confidence Rating (139pts, up 4pts). This is significantly higher than immediately prior to the last election when the final pre-election New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll showed Government Confidence at 118.5, and a strong sign for Key as he seeks re-election. “Most notably however, the ‘fourth party’ of New Zealand politics, NZ First, has increased its share of the vote to 6.5% (up 1.5%) – a level of support that would see all eight NZ First MPs returned to Parliament, and likely give NZ First Leader Winston Peters the chance to once again choose who New Zealand’s Prime Minister will be. Peters last held a Ministerial post when he served as Foreign Minister during the last term of Helen Clark’s Prime Ministership (2005-08). “Although the ongoing discussion about ‘Dirty Politics’ appears likely to damage support for National, today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First may be the biggest beneficiary of a discredited National Government rather than the main opposition Labour and Greens parties.” Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 809 electors from August 4-17, 2014. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party. Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
  40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
1,500 ±2.6 ±2.2 ±1.5 ±1.1
2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1.0

Roy Morgan New Zealand Election 2014 Interactive Charts These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties. In future weeks we will be adding key demographic variables to the charts including Age, Gender and Regional breakdowns to show which way key demographics are voting and which demographics each party needs to target to maximise their vote at this year’s New Zealand Election – called for September 20, 2014. View interactive New Zealand Election charts here. Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles. Voting Intention Summary The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE National Labour Green Party NZ First Maori Party* Mana Party* Internet* ACT NZ United Future Conservatives* Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % % % % % %
                       
July 27, 2002 20.9 41.3 7 10.4 n/a n/a n/a 7.1 6.7 n/a 6.6
September 17, 2005 39.1 41.1 5.3 5.72 2.12 n/a n/a 1.51 2.67 n/a 2.48
November 8, 2008 44.93 33.99 6.72 4.07 2.39 n/a n/a 3.65 0.87 n/a 3.38
November 26, 2011 47.31 27.48 11.06 6.59 1.43 1.08 n/a 1.07 0.60 2.65 0.73
ROY MORGAN POLL                      
Jun 8-24, 2012 47.5 32 12 4 1.5 0.5 n/a 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
Jun 25-Jul 8, 2012 45.5 32.5 13 4.5 1 0.5 n/a 0.5 0.5 n/a 2
Jul 9-22, 2012 47.5 30 11 5.5 1 0.5 n/a 1 0.5 3 ^
Jul 23-Aug 5, 2012 44 32 14 4 2 1 n/a 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
Aug 13-26, 2012 44.5 32 14.5 5 2.5 ^ n/a 1 ^ 0.5 ^
Aug 27-Sep. 9, 2012 46.5 31 12.5 4.5 2.5 1 n/a 0.5 ^ 1 0.5
Sep 10-23, 2012 43.5 33 11.5 5 2.5 1.5 n/a 0.5 ^ 2 0.5
Sep 24-Oct 7, 2012 41.5 33.5 13.5 6.5 1.5 ^ n/a 0.5 0.5 2 0.5
Oct 8-21, 2012 43.5 29 13 7.5 3.5 0.5 n/a 0.5 ^ 2 0.5
Oct 29-Nov 11, 2012 45.5 32.5 10.5 5 2 1 n/a 0.5 0.5 1.5 1
Nov 12-25, 2012 45 31.5 13.5 6.5 1 ^ n/a 0.5 0.5 1.5 ^
Nov 26-Dec 9, 2012 45.5 33.5 11 5 1.5 1 n/a 1 ^ 1 0.5
Jan 2-13, 2013 46 31.5 12 5 2 0.5 n/a 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
Jan 14-17, 2013 46 31.5 13.5 5.5 1.5 0.5 n/a 0.5 ^ 0.5 0.5
Jan 28-Feb 10, 2013 44 34.5 13.5 4 0.5 0.5 n/a 0.5 ^ 2 0.5
Feb 11-24, 2013 47.5 30.5 12.5 3 2.5 0.5 n/a 0.5 0.5 2 0.5
Feb 25-Mar 10, 2013 43.5 32.5 13.5 5 2 ^ n/a 0.5 0.5 2 0.5
Mar 11- 24 , 2013 44 34.5 13 3 2.5 0.5 n/a 0.5 1 1 ^
Apr 1-14, 2013 40.5 35.5 13.5 5 2 0.5 n/a 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
Apr 15-28, 2013 46.5 31.5 11 4.5 1.5 1 n/a 0.5 0.5 2 1
Apr 29-May 12, 2013 44 32 12 5 2 1 n/a 1.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
May 13-26, 2013 41 35 12 4.5 2 0.5 n/a 0.5 0.5 2.5 1.5
Jun 3-16, 2013 44 33 11.5 6 2 1 n/a 0.5 - 2 ^
Jun 17-30, 2013 46.5 31.5 13 3.5 1.5 0.5 n/a - 0.5 2 1
Jul 1-14, 2013 47 31 11.5 4.5 2 1.5 n/a 0.5 ^ 1.5 0.5
Jul 15-28, 2013 51 29 10 4 1.5 1 n/a 1 ^ 1.5 1
Jul 29-Aug 11, 2013 44 34 14 3 2 0.5 n/a 0.5 ^ 1 1
Aug 12-25, 2013 44 31.5 14 5.5 2 0.5 n/a 0.5 0.5 1 0.5
Aug 26-Sep. 8, 2013 41 32.5 15 6.5 1 0.5 n/a 1 0.5 1.5 0.5
Sep 16-29, 2013 42 37 11.5 4.5 1 0.5 n/a 0.5 0.5 2 0.5
Sep 30-Oct 13, 2013 41.5 37 12.5 5 1.5 0.5 n/a 0.5 ^ 0.5 1
Oct 14-27, 2013 42 35.5 11 4.5 1.5 0.5 n/a 1 0.5 2.5 1
Oct 28-Nov 10, 2013 45.5 32 12.5 5 1.5 1 n/a - 0.5 1.5 0.5
Nov 11-24, 2013 44.5 34 11 3.5 1.5 1 n/a 0.5 0.5 2 1.5
Nov 25-Dec 8, 2013 45 30.5 14.5 5 1.5 1 n/a ^ ^ 2 0.5
Jan 6-19, 2014 43.5 33.5 12.5 4 2 0.5 n/a ^ 0.5 2.5 1
Jan 20-Feb 2, 2014 47 33 11 4.5 1.5 1 0.5 ^ ^ 1.5 ^
Feb 3-16, 2014 48 30 12 5.5 0.5 1 0.5 1 0.5 1 ^
Feb 17-Mar 2, 2014 48.5 30.5 10.5 4.5 1.5 0.5 ^ 1 0.5 2.5 ^
Mar 3-16, 2014 45.5 31.5 14 3.5 2 ^ ^ 0.5 0.5 1.5 1
Mar 17-30, 2014 43 32 13 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.5 0.5
Mar 31-Apr 13, 2014 48.5 28.5 11.5 5.5 1 1 1 0.5 - 2 0.5
Apr 21-May 4, 2014 42.5 31 14.5 6 1 1 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1
May 5-18, 2014 45.5 30.5 13.5 6 1 1 0.5 0.5 - 1 0.5
May 19-June 1, 2014 52.5 29 9 4.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1 - 1 0.5
June 2-15, 2014 49.5 28 12 4 1 1.5 1 0.5 ^ 1.5 1
June 16-29, 2014 48 28 12 5.5 1.5 1 1.5 1 ^ 1 0.5
June 30-July 13, 2014 51 23.5 15 6 1 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 1 ^
July 14-27,2014 46 30 12 5 1.5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 1 1
August 4-17, 2014 48 27.5 11.5 6.5 1 1 1.5 0.5 0.5 1 1

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; The Mana Party was launched in April 2011. The Conservative Party was launched prior to the 2011 New Zealand Election and first measured by the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll in July 2012. The Internet Party was launched in January 2014.. ^ Result less than 0.5%. Two-Party Preferred: National Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

  National Party-led Government* Parliamentary Opposition Parties#
Election, November 8, 2008 51.84 48.16
Election, November 26, 2011 50.41 46.21
     
ROY MORGAN POLL    
July 9-22, 2012 50 47
July 23-August 5, 2012 47 51
August 13-26, 2012 48 51.5
August 27-Sep. 9, 2012 49.5 49
Sep. 10-23, 2012 46.5 51
Sep. 24 – Oct. 7, 2012 44 53.5
Oct. 8-21, 2012 47.5 50
Oct. 29 – Nov. 11, 2012 48.5 49
Nov. 12-25, 2012 47 51.5
Nov. 26 – Dec. 9, 2012 48 50.5
Jan. 2-13, 2013 49 49
Jan. 14-17, 2013 48 51
Jan. 28 – Feb. 10, 2013 45 52.5
Feb. 11-24, 2013 51 46.5
Feb. 25 – March 10, 2013 46.5 51
March 11- 24 , 2013 48 51
April 1-14, 2013 43.5 54.5
April 15-28, 2013 49 48
April 29 – May 12, 2013 48 50
May 13-26, 2013 44 52
June 3-16, 2013 46.5 51.5
June 17-30, 2013 48.5 48.5
July 1-14, 2013 49.5 48.5
July 15-28, 2013 53.5 44
July 29 – August 11, 2013 46.5 51.5
August 12-25, 2013 47 51.5
August 26 – Sep. 8, 2013 43.5 54.5
Sep. 16-29, 2013 44 53.5
Sep. 30-Oct 13, 2013 43.5 55
Oct 14-27, 2013 45 51.5
Oct 28-Nov 10, 2013 47.5 50.5
Nov 11-24, 2013 47 49.5
Nov 25-Dec 8, 2013 46.5 51
Jan 6-19, 2014 46 50.5
Jan 20-Feb 2, 2014 48.5 49.5
Feb 3-16, 2014 50 48.5
Feb 17-Mar 2, 2014 51.5 46
Mar 3-16, 2014 48.5 49
Mar 17-30, 2014 45.5 51
Mar 31–Apr 13, 2014 50 46.5
Apr 21-May 4, 2014 44.5 52.5
May 5-18, 2014 47 51
May 19-June 1, 2014 55 43
June 2-15, 2014 51 45.5
June 16-29, 2014 50.5 48
June 30-July 13, 2014 53 46
July 14-27, 2014 48.5 49.5
August 4-17, 2014 50 48

*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, NZ First, Internet-Mana Party alliance. Conservative Party & Other not included as they are not represented in Parliament. Finding No. 5747 is taken from Computer Report No. 2407 The Roy Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and NZ member of the Gallup International Association. No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification. NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION? Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
  Jan 14-27, 2013 Jan 28-Feb 10, 2013 Feb 11-24, 2013 Feb 25-Mar 10, 2013 Mar 11-24, 2013 Apr 1-14, 2013 Apr 15-28, 2013 Apr 29- May 12, 2013
  % % % % % % % %
Right direction 57 55 54 51.5 53.5 51.5 54.5 56.5
Wrong direction 30.5 30.5 32.5 37.5 34 35.5 34 30.5
Roy Morgan GCR# 126.5 124.5 121.5 114 119.5 116 120.5 126
Can’t say 12.5 14.5 13.5 11 12.5 13 11.5 13
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
  May 13-26, 2013 June 3-16, 2013 June 17-30, 2013 July 1-14, 2013 July 15-28, 2013 July 29-Aug 11, 2013 Aug 12-25, 2013 Aug 26-Sep 8, 2013
  % % % % % % % %
Right direction 55.5 54 57 58 58.5 58 58 52.5
Wrong direction 32.5 33.5 32 29.5 30 30 30.5 35.5
Roy Morgan GCR# 123 120.5 125 128.5 128.5 128 127.5 117
Can’t say 12 12.5 11 12.5 11.5 12 11.5 12
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
  Sep 16-29, 2013 Sep 30-Oct 13, 2013 Oct 14-27, 2013 Oct 28-Nov 10, 2013 Nov 11-24, 2013 Nov 25-Dec 8, 2013 Jan 6-19, 2014
  % % % % % % %
Right direction 59 55 57.5 61 59 58.5 63
Wrong direction 29.5 31 28.5 27.5 29 28.5 23.5
Roy Morgan GCR# 129.5 124 129 133.5 130 130 139.5
Can’t say 11.5 14 14 11.5 12 13 13.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
  Jan 20-Feb 2, 2014 Feb 3-16, 2014 Feb 17-Mar 2, 2014 Mar 3-16, 2014 Mar 17-30 2014 Mar 31-Apr 13, 2014 Apr 21-May 4, 2014
  % % % % % % %
Right direction 63.5 63.5 65 61 61 65 62
Wrong direction 24.5 23.5 23.5 25.5 28 22 26.5
Roy Morgan GCR# 139 140 141.5 135.5 133 143 135.5
Can’t say 12 13 11.5 13.5 11 13 11.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
  NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
  May 5-18, 2014 May 19-June 1 2014 June 2-15, 2014 June 16-29, 2014 June 30-July 13 2014 July 14-27 2014 Aug 4-17, 2014  
  % % % % % % %  
Right direction 60 64.5 63.5 65 65.5 60 63.5  
Wrong direction 28 24 24 23.5 23 25 24.5  
Roy Morgan GCR# 132 140.5 139.5 141.5 142.5 135 139  
Can’t say 12 11.5 12.5 11.5 11.5 15 12  
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100  

New Zealand Primary Vote


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New Zealand Roy Morgan GCR


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