Is there a future for United Future?

Peter Dunne’s United Future party held its annual conference on the weekend and despite Prime Minister John Key doing all he could do to help it has led to little change to the probability of
United Future to win Ohariu-Belmont.

.This is probably because Dunne has remained above a 70 percent probability since National essentially hobbled their candidate Katrina Shanks and ordered her to only seek the party vote.

Labour still believe that have a shot at seat which covers much of the northern suburbs of Wellington and Charles Chauvel has made the move from being a ruthlessly efficient lawyer to ruthlessly efficient politician with ease.

But he has an uphill task if National supporters do as they told.

In 2008 the seat was a three way race with Dunne’s 12,303 electorate votes comparing to Chauvel’s 11,297 and Shanks 10,009.

This time National supporters in the seat are being given the message loud and clear, and no doubt this will be hammered home in the election campaign proper.

Luckily for Chauvel a lot of people outside the true faithful blue brigade do not like being told what to do and he will be able to work that to his advantage.

Chauvel has also been working hard to portray Dunne as past his use by date, though the flipside of this is that Dunne is a legendary electorate MP and he has been working these suburbs for decades.

What is worrying for United Future supporters (80 are said to have turned up for the conference) is that they seem to be pulling in little or no party vote support.

In 2008, Dunne lost all his fellow MPs and even in his own electorate only managed to pick up 843 party votes for United Future.

Currently United Future party vote share stock  has it taking more than 2 percent of the vote seems optimistic in light of the polls.

It may be the iPredict market is factoring in voters paying more attention to the small parties as the election grows closer. It also could be an assumption that voters will look for coalition partners for National if Labour remains so far behind in the polls.

Dunne will certainly be playing the ``sensible partner’’ for National campaign to the hilt  with lines such as ``like you, I trust and like that nice Mr Key, but do you really want him beholden to ACT and Dr Brash – play it safe with me.’’

It may also be message that resonates with some Labour party supporters who really do fear what National might do under the sway of a wagging ACT tail.

So is there a future for United Future? In 2011 it will survive unless Chauvel runs a blinding campaign and if Dunne can pick up an MP or two then it could still remain a minor political force.

If Dunne gets a repeat of 2002 then there is even a chance it could even be an important player.

But by 2014 things will be more difficult, the next boundary reallocations are likely to push Ohariu further north into more traditionally Labour leaning suburbs, that could be Mission Impossible for one of New Zealand’s politics great survivors – Peter Dunne.

(A final note – Despite some coverage the Ohariu-Belmont seat no longer exists. Belmont was moved out of the electorate in the last boundary redrawing)

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